Weekly Market Commentary

MIDYEAR STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: PATH TO UPSIDE CLOUDED WITH UNCERTAINTY

Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA, Chief Equity Strategist, LPL Financial
Adam Turnquist, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist, LPL Financial

If “tariff” isn’t the word of the year for stock investors so far, then perhaps it’s “uncertainty.” Uncertainty around trade policy dominated the path of the stock market in the first half and will continue to play a large role in the second half. Tariffs influence the key drivers of stock market performance: economic and corporate profit growth, inflation, and interest rates. If stocks continue to move higher in the second half of the year, trade policy will need to cooperate. Meanwhile, geopolitics remain a wildcard. Here we provide our midyear stock market outlook, taken from Midyear Outlook 2025: Pragmatic Optimism, Measured Expectations.

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