Stock market weakness late last week caused investors to ask whether the long-awaited market pullback may be at hand. This week, we review the drivers of the market’s impressive rally back to the break-even point for the year, share our thoughts on whether the gains are justified, and take a look at some timely data for clues on the state of the economic recovery.
Weekly Market Commentary
7/20/20 An Earnings Season to Forget
COVID-19 lockdowns and widespread withdrawal of corporate guidance have set up an unpredictable earnings season. The magnitude of the decline we may see may make this an earnings season to forget. But it may not all be negative.
Weekly Market Commentary
7/6/2020 Election Preview
2020 is an election year, and as we get closer to November, we expect this to replace COVID-19 and the recession at the top of investors’ minds. The makeup of Congress may influence stock market performance, and how stocks and the economy perform prior to the election may forecast who will win.
Weekly Market Commentary
6/22/20 Five Reasons We Favor US Stocks
Among developed markets, we maintain our preference for US equities over international, but the bout of strong performance for the MSCI EAFE Index relative to the S&P 500 Index in late May through early June and the latest weakness in the US dollar are noteworthy. We share our latest thoughts on international equities and reiterate our positive emerging markets view.
Weekly Market Commentary
6/15/20 Potential Paths for Stocks in the Second Half
Stocks staged perhaps the strongest rally in history—a more than 44% gain for the S&P 500 Index from March 23 through June 8—before pulling back about 6% late last week. With so much economic healing ahead of us and a still-uncertain path for COVID-19, the key question for investors is whether stocks are pricing in an overly optimistic scenario for the recovery in economic activity and corporate profits.
Weekly Market Commentary
6/8/20 Prospects for a Swoosh-Shaped Recovery
The strongest 50-day rally in the S&P 500 Index in over 70 years has sent a signal that the economic recovery is gaining steam and may look more like a “V” than a “U,” a square root, checkmark, or swoosh. We assess the probabilities of these various scenarios for recovery and reiterate our 2020 economic growth forecasts.
Weekly Market Commentary
The rally continued as the S&P 500 Index closed out May on the positive side. The disconnect between stocks and the economy generated widespread concern among some investors. At the same time, reopening optimism and massive stimulus overshadowed some concerns about a second wave of COVID-19 infections and increasing US-China tensions.
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Weekly Market Commentary
5/26/20 Earnings Season’s Mixed Results
First quarter earnings season offered something for everyone. On the positive side, corporate America produced solid results outside of the COVID-19 pandemic trouble spots, which included retailers, travel-related businesses, and banks. At the same time, 2020 earnings estimates have plunged, and a return to “normal” earnings could be two years or more away.
Weekly Market Commentary
5/18/20 Downside Risk Remains
Stocks fell last week, and many blamed the drop on high stock valuations, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s gloomy outlook, and rising US-China tensions. Perhaps investors also are increasingly skeptical about prospects for a smooth V-shaped recovery. Regardless, stocks may have been due for a pullback after gains in late March through April and could potentially have further to fall.
Weekly Market Commentary
5/11/20 Time for a Pause?
Stocks have had a historic run amid increasingly negative headlines. Historically, stocks have tended to lead the economy, and while a second-half rebound may be likely, some equity weakness over the coming months is also possible. The historically worst six months of the year have officially started, and combined with technical warnings, that suggests stocks may take a well-deserved break soon.
Weekly Market Commentary
5/4/20 Big News and New Forecasts
The last week of April was a big news week. A very weak first quarter GDP highlighted a busy economic calendar. Investors digested a flurry of earnings reports, including some of the biggest names, such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft. Gilead Sciences released promising test results for a COVID-19 treatment, a positive step in potentially limiting the human and economic impact of the virus as some states began to reopen their economies. Finally, we heard from three major global central banks.
Weekly Market Commentary
Negative oil prices have dominated headlines recently. A combination of oversupply, lack of demand, and a lack of storage capacity resulted in temporarily negative oil prices, where holders of a futures contract were paying others to take delivery of oil for them. We explore what happened, what it means for the world market, and where oil prices could ultimately be headed.
Weekly Market Commentary
4/20/20 Is the Earnings Bar Low Enough?
This earnings season will be unlike any other, as travel restrictions and lockdowns related to COVID-19 have impacted results dramatically.The biggest economic hits came in mid-March, however, and won’t be fully captured in first quarter results. This makes company guidance particularly important as market participants look for clues into what earnings may look like for the rest of the year.
Weekly Market Commentary
4/13/20 A Recession is Here
The economy has halted for the past several weeks, and with it the longest economic expansion ever has ended, meaning we are now in a recession. What makes this recession unique is the government intentionally brought it on, with the chances for an economic bounce back later this year high if the virus is contained. If this recession becomes one of the shortest on record, as we expect, stocks may enjoy better times ahead, as stocks historically have led the economy out of recessions.
Weekly Market Commentary
4/6/20 Market Bottoming Process Continues
Stock market volatility has remained high as investors continue to closely track COVID-19 containment efforts while getting a glimpse into how damaging travel restrictions, stay-at-home orders, and social distancing have been on the US economy. We continue to watch for signs of a peak in new cases in the United States, which would allow investors to start thinking about a resumption of economic activity and a potentially powerful economic rebound in the second half of this year. In the meantime, stocks may revisit the March lows.
Weekly Market Commentary
3/30/20 Road to Recovery Playbook Update
The COVID-19 impact to our economy and workers has been devastating, but we’ve seen some positive developments from monetary and fiscal stimulus. We update our Road to Recovery Playbook on signs of a major low in equities.
Weekly Market Commentary
After recording two double-digit drops in equity prices over the last three trading days, the global pandemic of COVID-19 has sent world equity markets into bear market territory. The result is a cumulative 30% drop in the S&P 500 Index in just under 30 days. Though daunting, once the market finds a bottom (which is where the index begins to consistently move higher than the previous market low)—and we believe it is “when” not “if” the market finds a bottom—it will begin to move higher and may provide an the attractive opportunity for long-term investors to consider adding risk to portfolios.
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Weekly Market Performance
3/9/20 Wild Week (Data as of 3/6/20)